Future of Politics: Predictions from Detroit, MI

photo: Lauren Bailey
November 4, 2008 at 07:22pm
By De'Von Weatherspoon 

Unlike many other young Americans, I am not too optimistic about this election.  There is a lot of worry about.  The economy is in shambles, we are in two wars and may possibly enter into another one, and on top of all that, we have a very polarizing fight ensuing. Regardless of the harmony of the moment, I predict that we will be more divided in the long run than we already are.

If Obama wins, and it seems like he most likely will, the Democrats will have a party like we’ve never seen.  The Republicans will once again sit, dumbfounded about how they lost this election.  Everybody else in the country will move on and will start to demand some action from Congress.  Democrats will try to pass all the legislation that's built up under Bush; Republicans will desperately try to look busy by blocking all they can.

What most Americans don’t see is the underlying political consequences of this election.  Obama will no doubt pick up some areas within once-heavily Republican states.  So even if he doesn't win the whole state, his efforts will make it easier for future Democratic nominees to win there.  And Congressional Democrats will have significant wins in these areas as well.  

New Democrats from formerly Republican areas could pose a problem for the Obama administration. How, you ask?  

Most new congressional Democrats will be moderate to conservative--offspring of the Democratic Leadership Council.  The entrance of these Democrats will at first be welcomed, but they'll be too unpredictable for Obama to count on.  They'll be more conservative than Obama and his administration.  The Democratic Party will eventually be split amongst old lines: Supporters of the Clintons (moderates and conservatives) and supporters of Obama (Liberals).  This division, no matter how well hidden, will eventually eat away at the newfound enthusiasm and will leave Congress as it functioned pre-election.

Now, the Republicans on the other hand have far more difficulties whether they win or lose.  In both scenarios, the GOP is facing a battle that has been building since the '60s. 

In the case of a win, the more moderate factions of the GOP will wage eternal warfare for what they see as McCain giving in to the social conservatives (ergo Palin).  As a moderate Republican myself, I am appalled at how social conservatives run the GOP, and one day moderates will eventually ditch the GOP and make alliances with the New Democrats.  All is not lost however if McCain wins.  If McCain somehow suddenly changes into the Republican of 2000, the moderate faction of the GOP will live, on life-support, but it’ll be living.  This is the one shot that the moderate faction of the GOP has.

In the case of a loss, Republicans will all be wondering how on earth they could have lost this election.  Many will go “Well we had a maverick, added another socially conservative maverick, multiplied by all the rest who played rank and file and it still didn’t equal a win.” The different factions within the party will blame each other. This will devolve into chaos.  The GOP leadership will be forced to look at what went wrong and why they may just need to alter the platform of the party. If the GOP responds appropriately, then in the future we will see a more inclusive Republican Party and if they pull it off really well, we’ll be seeing Republican wins in mid-terms. If not, the party will struggle.

Either way, the next four years are bound to be interesting!

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