If economists were praying for a teen-led consumer spending surge this Holiday season, the October retail numbers have surely shaken their faith. Analysts are calling the teen apparel numbers for October- a traditionally slow month, admittedly- a "big disappointment". Preppy icon Abercrombie & Fitch reported a 39% drop in profit, and is bleeding market share to most cost concious retailers like Aeropostale.

Digging into the numbers reveals a bit of a jumble. Same store sales are up over last year in many cases, but analysts warn that those numbers are up from the economic abyss that was last October- when the country was still reeling from the credit crunch and the Presidential election was still on the line. In short, things are better than last year, but that's like saying a hernia is better than loosing your leg to a great white shark attack.

The worst part is that for a minute there, it looked like things were going to be okay. From Bloomberg:

U.S. consumer spending in September dropped for the first time in five months, according to Commerce Department data. Spending fell 0.5 percent after a 1.4 percent jump in August. Consumer confidence in October also declined. The jobless rate reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

After the jump, video games bring a bright spot... sort of...

It's not only clothing stores that are feeling the pinch. Despite predictions that the video game industry would turn things around in time for Christmas, and a round of price drops on consoles the industry limped through October. Game industry news site Gamasutra- the Bloomberg of video games- brings the bad tidings:

In every segment of the market – hardware, software, and accessories – the revenues were down significantly, and the overall total was down 19% relative to October 2008.

There are some signs of hope for those who live and dry by the consumer spending indexes. Activision's Modern Warfare 2 turned in a gargantuan performance. The first person shooter game nearly redefined the term blockbuster, pulling in over half a billion dollars in its first five days of release. Yet in all likelihood this isn't a sign of a sudden burst of consumer confidence, just more proof that some entertainment releases hold more power over the collective unconscious than the harsh realities of staggering unemployment numbers.    

In fact the release of MW2 may very well be the last hurrah for the games industry this holiday season, as many other high profile releases have been pushed back to 2010 in order to make way for Activision's make-believe military might.

All in all we're in a bit of an economic cliffhanger: will Millennials come back and get their shop on... or has the taste for lavish excess gone the way of Lindsay Lohan's career? Perhaps even more interesting: is this forcing a generational shift in perception, the same way that the Great Depression did?

Come January, the numbers will tell the tale.

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